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5.2 Sigma Later, CITBA Financial Corporation (CBAF) Still Ended Higher
By KlickAnalytics Data Insights | October 2, 2026 07:52PM ET
Here is what actually moved CITBA Financial Corporation (CBAF): the 6 sessions in the last month that broke out of its normal range, each measured against the stock's own 60-day volatility rather than a fixed percentage.
2026-10-01 — $47.0000 (+0.00%)
CITBA Financial rose 0.00% to $47.00. Shares opened with a 2.11% gap down and reversed through the session and closed near the session high (100% of the day's range).
2026-08-24 — $48.0000 (+5.26%)
CITBA Financial rose 5.26% to $48.00, its biggest one-day gain in 9 months and a 5.2sigma move against its 60-day volatility, on 1.6x average volume. This was largely stock-specific: the S&P 500 fell 0.29% while Financial Services peers (XLF) rose 1.29% that session, leaving about 4.0 points of the move unexplained by its sector. Shares closed near the session high (100% of the day's range), set a 52-week closing high and marked an 8th consecutive advance.
2026-08-21 — $45.6000 (+4.83%)
CITBA Financial rose 4.83% to $45.60, its biggest one-day gain in 9 months and a 5.9sigma move against its 60-day volatility. This was largely stock-specific: the S&P 500 gained 0.41% while Financial Services peers (XLF) rose 0.93% that session, leaving about 3.9 points of the move unexplained by its sector. Shares opened with a 1.15% gap up, closed near the session high (100% of the day's range), set a 52-week closing high and marked a 7th consecutive advance.
2026-08-14 — $42.9500 (+3.49%)
CITBA Financial rose 3.49% to $42.95, its biggest one-day gain in 6 months and a 5.2sigma move against its 60-day volatility, on 3.4x average volume. This was largely stock-specific: the S&P 500 fell 0.20% while Financial Services peers (XLF) fell 0.17% that session, leaving about 3.5 points of the move unexplained by the market after adjusting for a 0.21 beta. Shares closed near the session high (100% of the day's range), set a 52-week closing high and marked a 5th consecutive advance.
2026-08-13 — $41.5000 (+2.34%)
CITBA Financial rose 2.34% to $41.50, a 3.9sigma move against its 60-day volatility, though on light volume (0.3x the 20-day average). Roughly 1.8 points were stock-specific — the S&P 500 gained 0.70% while Financial Services peers (XLF) rose 0.59% alongside it. Shares opened with a 2.34% gap up, set a 52-week closing high and marked a 4th consecutive advance.
2026-07-31 — $39.9900 (+2.80%)
CITBA Financial rose 2.80% to $39.99, its biggest one-day gain in 6 months and a 6.1sigma move against its 60-day volatility, though on light volume (0.7x the 20-day average). This was largely stock-specific: the S&P 500 gained 0.72% while Financial Services peers (XLF) fell 0.11% that session, leaving about 2.7 points of the move unexplained by the market after adjusting for a 0.21 beta. Shares closed near the session high (100% of the day's range), set a 52-week closing high and marked a 3rd consecutive advance. Historically, after 2.5sigma-or-larger up days, CITBA Financial returned +0.30% on average over the following 5 sessions (42% positive, n=26).
In practical terms, separating what the market did from what the company did is most of the work; the attribution above does it session by session.
Historical frequencies describe what has happened, which is not a promise about what will.
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