Beta
Beta Analysis
Key Observations
- COMSP moves inversely to SPY (β = -0.47): a 1% rise in the benchmark is associated with a ~0.47% fall, so it has historically acted as a hedge.
- Benchmark explains only 0% of COMSP's daily variance (R² = 0.00): SPY is a poor fit — beta is statistically weak and driven mostly by idiosyncratic moves.
- Forward-looking adjusted beta ≈ 0.02 (Blume: pulls the raw β one-third of the way toward the market's 1.0).
- α ≈ -252.0%/yr: after stripping out market exposure, COMSP underperformed SPY over the window (extrapolated from the daily intercept; not a forecast).
- Annualized volatility: COMSP 489.4% vs SPY 39.8% — 12.30× as volatile (more than the benchmark).
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You ask
“How does NVDA usually trade through earnings?”
It calls
→ ka.options_expected_move(NVDA)
It answers
NVDA has averaged a 9.2% absolute move on the day after earnings and closed higher 67% of the time. Two in three reactions land between −4.2% and +16.3% — the distribution is skewed right, not symmetric.
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