Beta
479.57
0.71
(0.15%)
07/17/2026
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
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Beta Analysis
ULTA vs. SPY · 501 trading days · 18 Jul 2024 – 18 Jul 2026
Beta
0.83
Slope vs SPY
Adjusted Beta
0.89
Blume, toward 1.0
Alpha
+1.7%
Annualized, mkt-adj
R²
0.14
Explained by SPY
Correlation
0.38
Daily returns
Vol ULTA
37.4%
Annualized
Vol SPY
17.0%
Annualized
Key Observations
- Market-like (β = 0.83): ULTA moves roughly in step with SPY — a 1% benchmark move maps to ~0.83%.
- Benchmark explains only 14% of ULTA's daily variance (R² = 0.14): SPY is a poor fit — beta is statistically weak and driven mostly by idiosyncratic moves.
- Forward-looking adjusted beta ≈ 0.89 (Blume: pulls the raw β one-third of the way toward the market's 1.0).
- α ≈ +1.7%/yr: after stripping out market exposure, ULTA outperformed SPY over the window (extrapolated from the daily intercept; not a forecast).
- Annualized volatility: ULTA 37.4% vs SPY 17.0% — 2.20× as volatile (more than the benchmark).
Derived from the values above · point-in-time over the selected window · not investment advice.