2.58
0.02
(0.78%)
07/17/2026
Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)Historical Price Distribution Analysis
Positive vs Negative Occurrences |
| Positive Occurance | 48.80% |
| Negative Occurance | 39.20% |
| Ratio | 1.24 |
Average Up/Down Moves |
| Average Positive Move | 2.51% |
| Average Negative Move | -1.76% |
| Ratio | -1.43 |
Maximum Up/Down Moves |
| Largest Positive Move | 56.35% |
| Largest Negative Move | -5.95% |
| Ratio | -9.47 |
Intervals Distribution Statistics
Most Recent intervals return of -0.78% ranks in the 35th percentile — within its typical range.
Central Tendency & Dispersion |
| Mean Return | 0.61% |
| Median Return | 0.39% |
| Std Dev (Volatility) | 5.76% |
| Observations | 110 |
Distribution Shape |
| Skewness | 8.31 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 78.31 |
| Jarque-Bera | 29,370.4 (non-normal) |
Positively skewed (longer right tail).
Fat-tailed — outliers more likely than normal. |
Tail Risk & Expectancy |
| Value at Risk (95%) | -3.35% |
| Value at Risk (99%) | -4.99% |
| Expected Shortfall (CVaR 95%) | -4.57% |
| Expectancy / Period | 0.61% |
Percentile Band |
| 5th |
25th |
Median |
75th |
95th |
| -3.35% |
-1.15% |
0.39% |
1.48% |
3.15% |
| 90% of intervals returns fall between -3.35% and 3.15%. |
Key Observations |
| AWX posted 110 intervals returns averaging 0.61% (median 0.39%) with a 5.76% standard deviation. The distribution is positively skewed (longer right tail) with fatter-than-normal tails (elevated outlier risk), and a Jarque-Bera test classifies it as non-normal — lean on percentiles rather than σ to size risk. Positive periods occurred 55.5% of the time, giving an expectancy of 0.61% per period. In the worst 5% of periods, returns fell below -3.35%, averaging -4.57% (Expected Shortfall). The most recent move of -0.78% ranks in the 35th percentile — within its typical range. |
| Top 10 Negative Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 07-Nov | 10-Nov-2025 | -5.95 |
| 13-Nov | 14-Nov-2025 | -5.03 |
| 14-Jul | 15-Jul-2026 | -4.49 |
| 10-Oct | 13-Oct-2025 | -4.36 |
| 11-Nov | 12-Nov-2025 | -4.12 |
| 18-Sep | 19-Sep-2025 | -3.45 |
| 31-Dec | 02-Jan-2026 | -3.24 |
| 15-Jan | 16-Jan-2026 | -2.91 |
| 22-Aug | 25-Aug-2025 | -2.77 |
| 18-Dec | 19-Dec-2025 | -2.63 |
| Top 10 Positive Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 14-Oct | 15-Oct-2025 | 56.35 |
| 22-Dec | 23-Dec-2025 | 5.65 |
| 19-Nov | 20-Nov-2025 | 5.36 |
| 28-Nov | 01-Dec-2025 | 4.96 |
| 10-Jul | 13-Jul-2026 | 3.49 |
| 04-Jun | 05-Jun-2026 | 3.25 |
| 03-Nov | 04-Nov-2025 | 3.03 |
| 05-Feb | 06-Feb-2026 | 3.01 |
| 21-Jul | 22-Jul-2025 | 2.78 |
| 30-Sep | 01-Oct-2025 | 2.76 |
| Intervals Negative Returns |
Intervals Positive Returns |
| Return | % Occurance | # Occurance | Return | % Occurance | # Occurance |
| below 0.0% |
22.45 |
11 |
above 0.0% |
16.39 |
10 |
| below -0.5% |
12.24 |
6 |
above 0.5% |
21.31 |
13 |
| below -1.0% |
16.33 |
8 |
above 1.0% |
18.03 |
11 |
| below -1.5% |
14.29 |
7 |
above 1.5% |
13.11 |
8 |
| below -2.0% |
14.29 |
7 |
above 2.0% |
11.48 |
7 |
| below -2.5% |
6.12 |
3 |
above 2.5% |
6.56 |
4 |
| below -3.0% |
4.08 |
2 |
above 3.0% |
6.56 |
4 |
| below -3.5% |
|
|
above 3.5% |
|
|
| below -4.0% |
6.12 |
3 |
above 4.0% |
|
|
| below -4.5% |
|
|
above 4.5% |
1.64 |
1 |
| below -5.0% |
4.08 |
2 |
above 5.0% |
3.28 |
2 |
| below -6.0% |
|
|
above 6.0% |
|
|
| below -7.0% |
|
|
above 7.0% |
|
|
| below -8.0% |
|
|
above 8.0% |
|
|
| below -9.0% |
|
|
above 9.0% |
|
|
| below -10.0% |
|
|
above 10.0% |
1.64 |
1 |