114.32
0.70
(0.62%)
07/10/2026
Bunge Global S.A. (BG)Historical Price Distribution Analysis
Positive vs Negative Occurrences |
| Positive Occurance | 50.40% |
| Negative Occurance | 49.60% |
| Ratio | 1.02 |
Average Up/Down Moves |
| Average Positive Move | 1.30% |
| Average Negative Move | -1.55% |
| Ratio | -0.84 |
Maximum Up/Down Moves |
| Largest Positive Move | 3.79% |
| Largest Negative Move | -4.26% |
| Ratio | -0.89 |
Intervals Distribution Statistics
Most Recent intervals return of -0.61% ranks in the 38th percentile — within its typical range.
Central Tendency & Dispersion |
| Mean Return | -0.11% |
| Median Return | 0.03% |
| Std Dev (Volatility) | 1.79% |
| Observations | 125 |
Distribution Shape |
| Skewness | -0.13 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.48 |
| Jarque-Bera | 1.5 (normal) |
Negatively skewed (longer left tail).
Near-normal tails. |
Tail Risk & Expectancy |
| Value at Risk (95%) | -3.10% |
| Value at Risk (99%) | -3.97% |
| Expected Shortfall (CVaR 95%) | -3.53% |
| Expectancy / Period | -0.11% |
Percentile Band |
| 5th |
25th |
Median |
75th |
95th |
| -3.10% |
-1.19% |
0.03% |
1.12% |
2.98% |
| 90% of intervals returns fall between -3.10% and 2.98%. |
Key Observations |
| BG posted 125 intervals returns averaging -0.11% (median 0.03%) with a 1.79% standard deviation. The distribution is negatively skewed (longer left tail) with near-normal tails, and a Jarque-Bera test classifies it as approximately normal — σ-based estimates are reliable. Positive periods occurred 50.4% of the time, giving an expectancy of -0.11% per period. In the worst 5% of periods, returns fell below -3.10%, averaging -3.53% (Expected Shortfall). The most recent move of -0.61% ranks in the 38th percentile — within its typical range. |
| Top 10 Negative Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 21-Aug | 22-Aug-2025 | -4.26 |
| 15-Sep | 16-Sep-2025 | -4.04 |
| 07-Jul | 08-Jul-2026 | -3.75 |
| 01-Aug | 04-Aug-2025 | -3.23 |
| 22-Jul | 23-Jul-2025 | -3.17 |
| 25-Sep | 26-Sep-2025 | -3.15 |
| 24-Nov | 25-Nov-2025 | -3.10 |
| 14-Jan | 15-Jan-2026 | -3.10 |
| 19-Aug | 20-Aug-2025 | -3.04 |
| 10-Feb | 11-Feb-2026 | -3.00 |
| Top 10 Positive Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 25-Aug | 26-Aug-2025 | 3.79 |
| 05-May | 06-May-2026 | 3.43 |
| 29-Aug | 02-Sep-2025 | 3.43 |
| 19-Mar | 20-Mar-2026 | 3.30 |
| 18-Nov | 19-Nov-2025 | 3.22 |
| 17-Jun | 18-Jun-2026 | 3.16 |
| 15-Jun | 16-Jun-2026 | 3.00 |
| 04-Feb | 05-Feb-2026 | 2.89 |
| 19-Sep | 22-Sep-2025 | 2.63 |
| 13-May | 14-May-2026 | 2.33 |
| Intervals Negative Returns |
Intervals Positive Returns |
| Return | % Occurance | # Occurance | Return | % Occurance | # Occurance |
| below 0.0% |
20.97 |
13 |
above 0.0% |
25.40 |
16 |
| below -0.5% |
25.81 |
16 |
above 0.5% |
20.63 |
13 |
| below -1.0% |
6.45 |
4 |
above 1.0% |
17.46 |
11 |
| below -1.5% |
9.68 |
6 |
above 1.5% |
19.05 |
12 |
| below -2.0% |
16.13 |
10 |
above 2.0% |
3.17 |
2 |
| below -2.5% |
4.84 |
3 |
above 2.5% |
4.76 |
3 |
| below -3.0% |
11.29 |
7 |
above 3.0% |
7.94 |
5 |
| below -3.5% |
1.61 |
1 |
above 3.5% |
1.59 |
1 |
| below -4.0% |
3.23 |
2 |
above 4.0% |
|
|
| below -4.5% |
|
|
above 4.5% |
|
|
| below -5.0% |
|
|
above 5.0% |
|
|
| below -6.0% |
|
|
above 6.0% |
|
|
| below -7.0% |
|
|
above 7.0% |
|
|
| below -8.0% |
|
|
above 8.0% |
|
|
| below -9.0% |
|
|
above 9.0% |
|
|
| below -10.0% |
|
|
above 10.0% |
|
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