0.25
-0.00
(-1.23%)
07/16/2026
Homeland Nickel Inc. (SRCGF)Historical Price Distribution Analysis
Positive vs Negative Occurrences |
| Positive Occurance | 42.11% |
| Negative Occurance | 31.58% |
| Ratio | 1.33 |
Average Up/Down Moves |
| Average Positive Move | 6.73% |
| Average Negative Move | -9.84% |
| Ratio | -0.68 |
Maximum Up/Down Moves |
| Largest Positive Move | 16.91% |
| Largest Negative Move | -33.57% |
| Ratio | -0.50 |
Intervals Distribution Statistics
Most Recent intervals return of 1.25% ranks in the 57th percentile — within its typical range.
Central Tendency & Dispersion |
| Mean Return | -0.37% |
| Median Return | 1.02% |
| Std Dev (Volatility) | 11.97% |
| Observations | 14 |
Distribution Shape |
| Skewness | -1.44 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 2.39 |
| Jarque-Bera | 8.2 (non-normal) |
Negatively skewed (longer left tail).
Fat-tailed — outliers more likely than normal. |
Tail Risk & Expectancy |
| Value at Risk (95%) | -19.06% |
| Value at Risk (99%) | -30.67% |
| Expected Shortfall (CVaR 95%) | -33.57% |
| Expectancy / Period | -0.37% |
Percentile Band |
| 5th |
25th |
Median |
75th |
95th |
| -19.06% |
-2.81% |
1.02% |
6.83% |
11.34% |
| 90% of intervals returns fall between -19.06% and 11.34%. |
Key Observations |
| SRCGF posted 14 intervals returns averaging -0.37% (median 1.02%) with a 11.97% standard deviation. The distribution is negatively skewed (longer left tail) with fatter-than-normal tails (elevated outlier risk), and a Jarque-Bera test classifies it as non-normal — lean on percentiles rather than σ to size risk. Positive periods occurred 57.1% of the time, giving an expectancy of -0.37% per period. In the worst 5% of periods, returns fell below -19.06%, averaging -33.57% (Expected Shortfall). The most recent move of 1.25% ranks in the 57th percentile — within its typical range. |
| Top 10 Negative Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 15-Aug | 18-Aug-2025 | -33.57 |
| 24-Jul | 25-Jul-2025 | -11.25 |
| 30-Jun | 01-Jul-2026 | -7.47 |
| 02-Jul | 06-Jul-2026 | -3.11 |
| 09-Jul | 10-Jul-2026 | -1.92 |
| 13-Aug | 14-Aug-2025 | -1.72 |
| Top 10 Positive Returns |
| Date | Returns (%) |
| 19-Aug | 16-Oct-2025 | 16.91 |
| 26-Jun | 29-Jun-2026 | 8.35 |
| 22-Jul | 23-Jul-2025 | 8.17 |
| 28-Jul | 29-Jul-2025 | 6.90 |
| 07-Jul | 08-Jul-2026 | 6.62 |
| 11-Aug | 12-Aug-2025 | 4.86 |
| 15-Jul | 16-Jul-2026 | 1.25 |
| 13-Jul | 14-Jul-2026 | 0.80 |
| Intervals Negative Returns |
Intervals Positive Returns |
| Return | % Occurance | # Occurance | Return | % Occurance | # Occurance |
| below 0.0% |
|
|
above 0.0% |
|
|
| below -0.5% |
|
|
above 0.5% |
12.50 |
1 |
| below -1.0% |
|
|
above 1.0% |
12.50 |
1 |
| below -1.5% |
33.33 |
2 |
above 1.5% |
|
|
| below -2.0% |
|
|
above 2.0% |
|
|
| below -2.5% |
|
|
above 2.5% |
|
|
| below -3.0% |
16.67 |
1 |
above 3.0% |
|
|
| below -3.5% |
|
|
above 3.5% |
|
|
| below -4.0% |
|
|
above 4.0% |
|
|
| below -4.5% |
|
|
above 4.5% |
12.50 |
1 |
| below -5.0% |
|
|
above 5.0% |
|
|
| below -6.0% |
|
|
above 6.0% |
25.00 |
2 |
| below -7.0% |
16.67 |
1 |
above 7.0% |
|
|
| below -8.0% |
|
|
above 8.0% |
25.00 |
2 |
| below -9.0% |
|
|
above 9.0% |
|
|
| below -10.0% |
33.33 |
2 |
above 10.0% |
12.50 |
1 |