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Volatility Analysis

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0.05 -0.00 (-2.34%) 09/01/2026
Casa Minerals Inc. (CASXF)
Showing 1 year of volatilty data. To view all data, Upgrade to PRO plan!
Summary
  • CASXF is realising 132.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. There is not enough history behind a 21-day window to rank that against its past — shorten the volatility window or widen the lookback for a percentile worth reading.
  • The Parkinson range estimate (275.9%) exceeds close-to-close vol (132.9%): the stock travels a wide intraday range but keeps closing near where it opened — mean-reverting chop rather than trend.
  • 60% of total variance is delivered overnight (379.3% annualised) against 311.8% during the session — this is a gap-risk name, and an intraday stop will not protect the position.
  • On the empirical distribution, a 1-day 95% VaR is -14.98% with an expected shortfall beyond it of -20.98%.
  • Worst peak-to-trough drawdown over the window was -28.3% (trough 2026-07-27), with an Ulcer Index of 14.75 capturing how long it stayed underwater.
Realized Vol · 21d
132.9%
Unclassified
 too few windows to rank 
Context · 11 months lookback
Percentile
Z-score
160.8%Median vol
1-mo change
Vol of vol
135.1%EWMA λ=.94
Historical Volatility Close-to-Close · 21-day rolling · annualised ×√252
Volatility Cone Close-to-Close · 11 months of overlapping windows
Every realized-vol reading the stock has produced at each horizon, as a percentile envelope. The marker is today. A dot riding the top of the cone says vol is stretched for that horizon — which is the comparison that matters, since short windows are naturally noisier than long ones.
HorizonMin10th25thMedian75th90thMaxCurrentPercentileObs
1 Week 5d45.087.9119.8163.6192.3217.0228.070.89*27
2 Weeks 10d105.1121.2145.3157.5172.5196.2199.2105.12*22
1 Month 21d132.9138.1148.4160.8162.9165.4165.7132.95*11
* Percentile is based on fewer than 60 overlapping windows at that horizon — not enough independent history to rank against. Widen the cone lookback to firm it up.
Realized Term Structure
Current realized vol at each horizon against the median for that same horizon. When the short end sits above the long end the curve is inverted — the market is pricing a near-term event, and the spread has historically closed by the short end falling rather than the long end rising.
Estimator Comparison
Five estimators of the same quantity. They disagree in informative ways: Parkinson and Garman-Klass read the intraday range and are blind to overnight gaps; Rogers-Satchell is drift-independent, so it does not inflate on a strong trend; Yang-Zhang combines overnight, open-to-close and Rogers-Satchell and is the one to quote against implied vol.
Estimator1 Month3 Months6 Months1 YearReads
Close-to-Close132.9142.1142.1142.1total risk, incl. gaps
Parkinson275.9345.8345.8345.8intraday range only
Garman-Klass277.5359.4359.4359.4range + open/close
Rogers-Satchell280.0371.0371.0371.0drift-independent
Yang-Zhang426.9524.4524.4524.4gaps + range + drift
Conditional Volatility Models
A GARCH(1,1) fit needs at least one year of returns. Widen the date range to enable it.
Tail & Drawdown Risk
VaR and expected shortfall are historical — read straight off the empirical return distribution, with no normality assumption. The parametric figures next to them assume a Gaussian; the difference between the two is the size of the tail your model would have missed.
142.09%Annualised vol
154.50%Downside vol
144.52%Upside vol
-14.98%VaR 95% (hist)
-22.51%VaR 99% (hist)
-20.98%CVaR 95% (ES)
-24.81%CVaR 99% (ES)
-14.72%VaR 95% (normal)
-20.81%VaR 99% (normal)
-0.663Skew
0.93Excess kurtosis
3.23%Days beyond 2σ
0.00%Days beyond 3σ
-28.28%Max drawdown
14.75Ulcer Index
74.20%CAGR
0.52Sharpe (rf=0)
0.48Sortino (rf=0)
Overnight vs Intraday
Variance decomposed into the gap between one close and the next open, versus the regular session.
60%
40%
Overnight gap · 379.3% annualisedIntraday session · 311.8% annualised
Volatility Change by Month month-over-month % change in 21-day realized vol
Not price returns — this is how much the volatility itself moved each month. Persistent positive months flag a season when risk tends to build in this name.
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMinMaxAvg
2026       -13.2-3.8   -13.2-3.8-8.5
Avg change-13.2-3.8-13.2-3.8-8.5
% months vol rose00

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