232.11
-1.55
(-0.66%)
07/24/2026
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)AMZN Pattern Analysis
Pick a candlestick pattern to see every historical occurrence, how price actually reacted afterwards, and an evidence-based reliability score.
44
Reliability /100
Weak / No edge
🔒 Reliability scores, win rates, returns and edge figures are blurred on the free plan. Upgrade to PRO plan!
Historical Occurrences
Every Engulfing on the Daily chart. B = bullish signal, S = bearish signal. Zoom with the range selector.
Upgrade to view the full technical analysis. Upgrade to PRO plan!
Average Price Reaction
Average % change from the signal bar over the following 30 daily bars, versus the stock’s baseline drift from any random bar.
Upgrade to view the full technical analysis. Upgrade to PRO plan!
Forward Return Statistics
Returns are signed to the pattern’s expected direction. Edge = pattern return minus baseline drift; positive edge means the pattern beat simply holding. t > 2 suggests the edge is unlikely to be chance. MFE / MAE = average best / worst the trade got to within the window (how much it ran your way before it turned).
| Horizon | Samples | Win Rate | Avg Return | Median | Baseline | Edge | MFE | MAE | t-stat | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 bar | 82 | 53.7% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.04% | +0.07% | +1.39% | -1.12% | 0.33 | 53 |
| +3 bars | 82 | 50.0% | -0.29% | -0.06% | 0.14% | -0.27% | +2.68% | -2.67% | -0.59 | 48 |
| +5 bars | 82 | 50.0% | -0.76% | -0.04% | 0.25% | -0.72% | +3.47% | -3.73% | -1.22 | 46 |
| +10 bars | 81 | 49.4% | -1.23% | -0.08% | 0.52% | -1.13% | +4.63% | -5.19% | -1.63 | 44 |
| +20 bars | 80 | 46.3% | -1.31% | -1.41% | 1.07% | -1.10% | +7.15% | -7.89% | -1.04 | 44 |
| +30 bars | 80 | 47.5% | -0.85% | -0.50% | 1.56% | -0.54% | +8.94% | -9.29% | -0.47 | 47 |
Occurrence Detail
Most recent first. Returns shown are actual price change from the signal bar (not direction-adjusted).
| Date | Signal | Close | +1 | +3 | +5 | +10 | +20 | +30 | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 249.89 | -1.06% | -0.94% | -6.49% | – | – | – | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 247.04 | -0.69% | 0.18% | 1.15% | -5.42% | – | – | Failed |
| Jun 5, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 246.03 | -0.33% | -3.26% | -3.04% | -5.38% | -0.02% | 0.62% | Worked |
| May 13, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 270.13 | -1.08% | -1.95% | -1.90% | 1.43% | -10.59% | -13.86% | Worked |
| May 7, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 271.17 | 0.56% | -1.97% | -1.46% | -1.00% | -9.27% | -14.15% | Worked |
| Mar 11, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 212.65 | -1.47% | -0.43% | -1.31% | -0.44% | 9.88% | 19.95% | Worked |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 207.92 | 1.00% | 0.39% | 5.30% | 0.77% | -0.18% | 14.65% | Failed |
| Feb 17, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 201.15 | 1.81% | 4.45% | 3.68% | 3.77% | 6.98% | 3.54% | Worked |
| Feb 2, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 242.96 | -1.79% | -8.34% | -14.09% | -17.21% | -14.09% | -11.43% | Failed |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 230.82 | -1.87% | 4.38% | 6.70% | 3.19% | 3.67% | -13.88% | Failed |
| Nov 12, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 244.20 | -2.71% | -4.64% | -8.81% | -6.16% | -5.70% | -4.78% | Worked |
| Oct 7, 2025 | ▲ Bullish | 221.78 | 1.55% | -2.44% | -2.43% | 0.11% | 12.42% | 0.35% | Worked |
| Oct 3, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.51 | 0.63% | 2.60% | -1.43% | -2.95% | 11.26% | 6.92% | Worked |
| Jul 8, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.36 | 1.45% | 2.58% | 3.19% | 3.70% | -2.56% | 3.94% | Failed |
| Jun 30, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.39 | 0.49% | 1.83% | -0.01% | 3.17% | 5.30% | 0.95% | Failed |
| Jun 25, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 211.99 | 2.42% | 3.49% | 3.74% | 4.84% | 9.55% | 5.25% | Failed |
| May 14, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 210.25 | -2.42% | -1.95% | -4.34% | -2.16% | 1.42% | 6.21% | Worked |
| Mar 26, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 201.13 | 0.11% | -5.40% | -2.55% | -4.99% | -7.25% | -4.50% | Worked |
| Mar 17, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 195.74 | -1.49% | -0.40% | 3.84% | -2.80% | -6.96% | -4.27% | Worked |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ▲ Bullish | 196.59 | 1.17% | 0.69% | -1.92% | 4.64% | -13.19% | -8.13% | Worked |
| Mar 3, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 205.02 | -0.60% | -2.11% | -5.11% | -4.53% | -7.20% | -11.17% | Worked |
| Jan 16, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 220.66 | 2.39% | 6.50% | 6.43% | 7.71% | 3.63% | -7.09% | Failed |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 217.76 | 2.57% | 3.76% | 7.92% | 8.87% | 5.13% | -4.14% | Failed |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 222.11 | 0.01% | -1.64% | 0.56% | 5.99% | 7.53% | -2.49% | Failed |
| Dec 31, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 219.39 | 0.38% | 3.75% | 1.25% | 0.58% | 8.34% | 4.23% | Failed |
| Dec 20, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 224.92 | 0.06% | 0.95% | -1.61% | -1.25% | 4.67% | 6.18% | Failed |
| Nov 19, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 204.61 | -0.85% | -3.66% | 1.59% | 6.62% | 7.78% | 9.57% | Worked |
| Oct 18, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 188.99 | 0.04% | -2.26% | -0.61% | 4.73% | 7.21% | 11.49% | Worked |
| Oct 11, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 188.82 | -0.68% | -1.02% | 0.09% | -0.52% | 10.25% | 4.40% | Failed |
| Aug 22, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 176.13 | 0.52% | -1.71% | -2.28% | -2.69% | 8.78% | 5.89% | Worked |
| Aug 1, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 184.07 | -8.78% | -12.03% | -9.93% | -3.52% | -6.49% | 1.31% | Worked |
| Jun 24, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 185.57 | 0.41% | 6.62% | 6.27% | 7.42% | 0.45% | -12.74% | Failed |
| Jun 12, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 186.89 | -1.64% | -1.51% | -0.42% | 5.86% | 4.07% | -2.35% | Failed |
| Jun 10, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 187.06 | 0.09% | -1.73% | -1.60% | -0.38% | 6.81% | -3.33% | Failed |
| May 28, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 182.15 | -0.07% | -3.13% | -1.54% | 2.79% | 6.29% | 7.08% | Worked |
| Apr 24, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 176.59 | -1.65% | 2.47% | 1.36% | 6.46% | 3.70% | 4.76% | Failed |
| Apr 17, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 181.28 | -1.14% | -2.23% | -2.59% | -1.26% | 2.60% | -1.08% | Worked |
| Mar 19, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 175.90 | 1.28% | 1.69% | 1.36% | 3.70% | 3.06% | 1.76% | Worked |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 154.62 | -0.94% | -0.72% | 0.10% | 4.29% | 11.46% | 12.24% | Failed |
| Dec 14, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 147.42 | 1.73% | 4.32% | 4.35% | 3.07% | 3.89% | 7.86% | Failed |
| Dec 5, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 146.88 | -1.61% | 0.37% | 0.41% | 4.70% | -1.57% | 5.76% | Worked |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 146.32 | -0.16% | -1.01% | -1.23% | 1.72% | 4.83% | 5.67% | Failed |
| Nov 15, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 143.20 | -0.26% | 2.05% | 2.45% | 2.02% | 2.95% | 6.10% | Failed |
| Nov 10, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 143.56 | -0.68% | -0.25% | 1.13% | 2.90% | 1.62% | 6.86% | Worked |
| Oct 13, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 129.79 | 2.13% | -1.28% | -3.56% | -1.58% | 10.61% | 13.82% | Worked |
| Oct 6, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 127.96 | 0.23% | 3.02% | 1.43% | -2.18% | 8.32% | 13.46% | Failed |
| Sep 13, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 144.85 | -0.09% | -3.36% | -6.60% | -13.03% | -8.99% | -16.20% | Failed |
| Sep 7, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 137.85 | 0.28% | 2.45% | 4.98% | -6.18% | -8.63% | -6.86% | Failed |
| Aug 24, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 131.84 | 1.08% | 2.33% | 4.68% | 4.85% | -2.06% | -2.94% | Failed |
| Jun 15, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 127.11 | -1.27% | -1.79% | 1.75% | 2.56% | 5.07% | 5.17% | Worked |
| Jun 7, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 121.23 | 2.49% | 4.40% | 4.28% | 7.36% | 7.05% | 7.23% | Failed |
| Jun 5, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 125.30 | 1.05% | -0.84% | 1.01% | 0.38% | 4.05% | 8.03% | Worked |
| May 19, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 116.25 | -1.07% | 0.43% | 3.32% | 7.78% | 8.20% | 12.15% | Failed |
| Apr 19, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 104.30 | -0.47% | 1.83% | 0.65% | -0.62% | 10.74% | 17.71% | Failed |
| Mar 27, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 98.04 | -0.82% | 4.04% | 4.46% | 1.92% | 4.62% | 8.75% | Failed |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 97.18 | 2.10% | 3.47% | 8.20% | 2.95% | -1.40% | -5.07% | Worked |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 98.12 | -2.11% | -4.53% | -0.61% | 2.48% | 1.45% | -3.96% | Worked |
| Jan 6, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 86.08 | 1.49% | 10.47% | 13.99% | 13.29% | 18.70% | 9.87% | Worked |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 85.14 | -2.37% | 2.61% | 11.69% | 10.03% | 32.62% | 15.28% | Failed |
| Nov 29, 2022 | ▼ Bearish | 92.42 | 4.46% | 1.85% | -4.51% | 0.08% | -11.47% | 3.08% | Failed |
Showing the 60 most recent of 82 occurrences.
Which Patterns Actually Work on AMZN?
All 24 patterns scored on the Daily timeframe at +10 bars. Ranked by reliability; patterns with fewer than 10 occurrences are listed last as untrustworthy. Click any row to analyse it.
| # | Pattern | Bias | Booki | Samples | Win Rate | Avg | Edge | t-stat | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dark Cloud Cover | Bearish | ★★★ | 16 | 62.5% | 2.66% | +3.19% | 1.60 | 60 Moderate |
| 2 | Harami | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 99 | 54.5% | 0.88% | +0.83% | 1.39 | 57 Weak / No edge |
| 3 | Harami Cross | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 27 | 51.9% | 0.82% | +0.81% | 0.94 | 55 Weak / No edge |
| 4 | Doji | Non-directional | ★★★ | 146 | 54.8% | 0.67% | +0.15% | 0.27 | 53 Weak / No edge |
| 5 | Spinning Top | Non-directional | ★★★ | 267 | 54.7% | 0.48% | -0.05% | -0.11 | 52 Weak / No edge |
| 6 | Dragonfly Doji | Bullish | ★★★ | 16 | 62.5% | -0.07% | -0.60% | -0.29 | 52 Weak / No edge |
| 7 | Three Inside | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 31 | 48.4% | 0.06% | +0.04% | 0.04 | 50 Weak / No edge |
| 8 | Gravestone Doji | Bearish | ★★★ | 11 | 45.5% | -0.63% | -0.11% | -0.07 | 49 Weak / No edge |
| 9 | Shooting Star | Bearish | ★★★ | 14 | 42.9% | -1.46% | -0.93% | -0.64 | 45 Weak / No edge |
| 10 | Evening Star | Bearish | ★★★ | 13 | 46.2% | -2.53% | -2.01% | -1.05 | 45 Weak / No edge |
| 11 | Marubozu | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 69 | 44.9% | -0.79% | -0.78% | -0.74 | 45 Weak / No edge |
| 12 | Engulfing | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 81 | 49.4% | -1.23% | -1.13% | -1.63 | 44 Weak / No edge |
| 13 | Three Outside | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 43 | 46.5% | -1.23% | -1.09% | -1.11 | 44 Weak / No edge |
| 14 | Hammer | Bullish | ★★★ | 35 | 48.6% | -1.23% | -1.75% | -1.41 | 43 Weak / No edge |
| 15 | Belt Hold | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 209 | 44.0% | -0.76% | -0.73% | -1.46 | 43 Weak / No edge |
| 16 | Hanging Man | Bearish | ★★★ | 22 | 27.3% | -1.30% | -0.78% | -0.44 | 41 Contrarian |
| 17 | Morning Star | Bullish | ★★★ | 9 | 66.7% | 3.39% | +2.87% | 1.21 | 58 Insufficient sample |
| 18 | Piercing Line | Bullish | ★★★ | 4 | 75.0% | 4.09% | +3.57% | 1.36 | 56 Insufficient sample |
| 19 | Inverted Hammer | Bullish | ★★★ | 8 | 62.5% | 3.53% | +3.01% | 1.04 | 56 Insufficient sample |
| 20 | Three White Soldiers | Bullish | ★★★ | 1 | 100.0% | 1.43% | +0.91% | – | 51 Insufficient sample |
| 21 | Three Black Crows | Bearish | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 22 | Rising/Falling Three Methods | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 23 | Abandoned Baby | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 24 | Kicking | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
Out-of-Sample Validation
Each pattern is fitted on the first 70% of history (through Jan 23, 2025) and then re-tested on the held-out 30% it never saw. A pattern only earns Holds up OOS if it showed an in-sample edge and stayed profitable with a >50% win rate out-of-sample. In-sample signals are embargoed so their forward window cannot peek across the split.
Why this matters: testing 24 patterns at once means roughly 1.2 would look significant by pure chance. 0 of 24 survived out-of-sample here — that is no better than luck would predict, so treat these as unproven.
| Pattern | Bias | IS n | IS Win | IS Edge | IS Score | OOS n | OOS Win | OOS Edge | OOS t | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harami | Bull / Bear | 69 | 59.4% | +1.06% | 60 | 29 | 41.4% | +0.14% | 0.13 | Partial |
| Doji | Non-dir. | 106 | 50.9% | -0.45% | 48 | 38 | 63.2% | +1.62% | 1.83 | No IS edge |
| Spinning Top | Non-dir. | 178 | 50.6% | -0.56% | 47 | 87 | 62.1% | +1.02% | 1.55 | No IS edge |
| Three Outside | Bull / Bear | 33 | 36.4% | -1.83% | 39 | 10 | 80.0% | +1.26% | 1.09 | No IS edge |
| Engulfing | Bull / Bear | 58 | 46.6% | -1.32% | 42 | 20 | 65.0% | +0.23% | 0.18 | No IS edge |
| Marubozu | Bull / Bear | 49 | 40.8% | -1.18% | 42 | 19 | 57.9% | +0.53% | 0.24 | No IS edge |
| Belt Hold | Bull / Bear | 139 | 43.9% | -0.76% | 43 | 68 | 45.6% | -0.53% | -0.58 | No IS edge |
| Hanging Man | Bearish | 18 | 16.7% | -1.83% | 36 | 3 | 100.0% | +6.73% | 2.39 | Insufficient OOS |
| Dark Cloud Cover | Bearish | 12 | 66.7% | +2.86% | 59 | 4 | 50.0% | +4.04% | 0.86 | Insufficient OOS |
| Three Inside | Bull / Bear | 24 | 54.2% | -0.13% | 51 | 7 | 28.6% | +0.66% | 0.21 | Insufficient OOS |
| Hammer | Bullish | 25 | 48.0% | -2.02% | 43 | 9 | 44.4% | -1.64% | -0.54 | Insufficient OOS |
| Dragonfly Doji | Bullish | 12 | 66.7% | -0.39% | 53 | 4 | 50.0% | -1.10% | -1.01 | Insufficient OOS |
| Harami Cross | Bull / Bear | 21 | 57.1% | +1.45% | 58 | 6 | 33.3% | -1.47% | -2.08 | Insufficient OOS |
| Evening Star | Bearish | 9 | 44.4% | -3.86% | 43 | 4 | 50.0% | +2.02% | 1.47 | Insufficient IS |
| Morning Star | Bullish | 8 | 62.5% | +2.88% | 56 | 1 | 100.0% | +2.75% | – | Insufficient IS |
| Shooting Star | Bearish | 8 | 37.5% | -1.59% | 45 | 6 | 50.0% | -0.24% | -0.13 | Insufficient IS |
| Inverted Hammer | Bullish | 7 | 71.4% | +3.68% | 58 | 1 | 0.0% | -1.68% | – | Insufficient IS |
| Gravestone Doji | Bearish | 8 | 50.0% | +0.10% | 50 | 3 | 33.3% | -0.82% | -0.86 | Insufficient IS |
| Three Black Crows | Bearish | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Three White Soldiers | Bullish | 1 | 100.0% | +0.88% | 51 | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Piercing Line | Bullish | 4 | 75.0% | +3.54% | 56 | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Rising/Falling Three Methods | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Abandoned Baby | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Kicking | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |