257.32
5.43
(2.16%)
09/11/2026
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)AMZN Pattern Analysis
Pick a candlestick pattern to see every historical occurrence, how price actually reacted afterwards, and an evidence-based reliability score.
45
Reliability /100
Weak / No edge
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Historical Occurrences
Every Engulfing on the Daily chart. B = bullish signal, S = bearish signal. Zoom with the range selector.
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Average Price Reaction
Average % change from the signal bar over the following 30 daily bars, versus the stock’s baseline drift from any random bar.
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Forward Return Statistics
Returns are signed to the pattern’s expected direction. Edge = pattern return minus baseline drift; positive edge means the pattern beat simply holding. t > 2 suggests the edge is unlikely to be chance. MFE / MAE = average best / worst the trade got to within the window (how much it ran your way before it turned).
| Horizon | Samples | Win Rate | Avg Return | Median | Baseline | Edge | MFE | MAE | t-stat | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 bar | 82 | 53.7% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.06% | +0.08% | +1.40% | -1.13% | 0.37 | 53 |
| +3 bars | 82 | 48.8% | -0.34% | -0.32% | 0.17% | -0.31% | +2.66% | -2.70% | -0.68 | 47 |
| +5 bars | 82 | 51.2% | -0.73% | 0.05% | 0.29% | -0.67% | +3.45% | -3.76% | -1.15 | 47 |
| +10 bars | 82 | 50.0% | -1.14% | 0.02% | 0.58% | -1.01% | +4.68% | -5.17% | -1.46 | 45 |
| +20 bars | 82 | 46.3% | -1.16% | -1.41% | 1.18% | -0.90% | +7.29% | -8.01% | -0.87 | 45 |
| +30 bars | 80 | 47.5% | -0.82% | -0.50% | 1.80% | -0.46% | +9.06% | -9.52% | -0.41 | 47 |
Occurrence Detail
Most recent first. Returns shown are actual price change from the signal bar (not direction-adjusted).
| Date | Signal | Close | +1 | +3 | +5 | +10 | +20 | +30 | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 272.27 | -1.83% | -3.53% | -4.71% | -4.12% | -7.30% | – | Worked |
| Aug 5, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 272.65 | -0.14% | 2.00% | -1.97% | -2.50% | -6.48% | – | Worked |
| Jul 16, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 249.89 | -1.06% | -0.94% | -6.49% | -5.76% | 6.10% | 2.55% | Worked |
| Jul 9, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 247.04 | -0.69% | 0.18% | 1.15% | -5.42% | 10.21% | 5.29% | Failed |
| Jun 5, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 246.03 | -0.33% | -3.26% | -3.04% | -5.38% | -0.02% | 0.62% | Worked |
| May 13, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 270.13 | -1.08% | -1.95% | -1.90% | 1.43% | -10.59% | -13.86% | Worked |
| May 7, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 271.17 | 0.56% | -1.97% | -1.46% | -1.00% | -9.27% | -14.15% | Worked |
| Mar 11, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 212.65 | -1.47% | -0.43% | -1.31% | -0.44% | 9.88% | 19.95% | Worked |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ▼ Bearish | 207.92 | 1.00% | 0.39% | 5.30% | 0.77% | -0.18% | 14.65% | Failed |
| Feb 17, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 201.15 | 1.81% | 4.45% | 3.68% | 3.77% | 6.98% | 3.54% | Worked |
| Feb 2, 2026 | ▲ Bullish | 242.96 | -1.79% | -8.34% | -14.09% | -17.21% | -14.09% | -11.43% | Failed |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 230.82 | -1.87% | 4.38% | 6.70% | 3.19% | 3.67% | -13.88% | Failed |
| Nov 12, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 244.20 | -2.71% | -4.64% | -8.81% | -6.16% | -5.70% | -4.78% | Worked |
| Oct 7, 2025 | ▲ Bullish | 221.78 | 1.55% | -2.44% | -2.43% | 0.11% | 12.42% | 0.35% | Worked |
| Oct 3, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.51 | 0.63% | 2.60% | -1.43% | -2.95% | 11.26% | 6.92% | Worked |
| Jul 8, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.36 | 1.45% | 2.58% | 3.19% | 3.70% | -2.56% | 3.94% | Failed |
| Jun 30, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 219.39 | 0.49% | 1.83% | -0.01% | 3.17% | 5.30% | 0.95% | Failed |
| Jun 25, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 211.99 | 2.42% | 3.49% | 3.74% | 4.84% | 9.55% | 5.25% | Failed |
| May 14, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 210.25 | -2.42% | -1.95% | -4.34% | -2.16% | 1.42% | 6.21% | Worked |
| Mar 26, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 201.13 | 0.11% | -5.40% | -2.55% | -4.99% | -7.25% | -4.50% | Worked |
| Mar 17, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 195.74 | -1.49% | -0.40% | 3.84% | -2.80% | -6.96% | -4.27% | Worked |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ▲ Bullish | 196.59 | 1.17% | 0.69% | -1.92% | 4.64% | -13.19% | -8.13% | Worked |
| Mar 3, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 205.02 | -0.60% | -2.11% | -5.11% | -4.53% | -7.20% | -11.17% | Worked |
| Jan 16, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 220.66 | 2.39% | 6.50% | 6.43% | 7.71% | 3.63% | -7.09% | Failed |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 217.76 | 2.57% | 3.76% | 7.92% | 8.87% | 5.13% | -4.14% | Failed |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ▼ Bearish | 222.11 | 0.01% | -1.64% | 0.56% | 5.99% | 7.53% | -2.49% | Failed |
| Dec 31, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 219.39 | 0.38% | 3.75% | 1.25% | 0.58% | 8.34% | 4.23% | Failed |
| Dec 20, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 224.92 | 0.06% | 0.95% | -1.61% | -1.25% | 4.67% | 6.18% | Failed |
| Nov 19, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 204.61 | -0.85% | -3.66% | 1.59% | 6.62% | 7.78% | 9.57% | Worked |
| Oct 18, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 188.99 | 0.04% | -2.26% | -0.61% | 4.73% | 7.21% | 11.49% | Worked |
| Oct 11, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 188.82 | -0.68% | -1.02% | 0.09% | -0.52% | 10.25% | 4.40% | Failed |
| Aug 22, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 176.13 | 0.52% | -1.71% | -2.28% | -2.69% | 8.78% | 5.89% | Worked |
| Aug 1, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 184.07 | -8.78% | -12.03% | -9.93% | -3.52% | -6.49% | 1.31% | Worked |
| Jun 24, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 185.57 | 0.41% | 6.62% | 6.27% | 7.42% | 0.45% | -12.74% | Failed |
| Jun 12, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 186.89 | -1.64% | -1.51% | -0.42% | 5.86% | 4.07% | -2.35% | Failed |
| Jun 10, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 187.06 | 0.09% | -1.73% | -1.60% | -0.38% | 6.81% | -3.33% | Failed |
| May 28, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 182.15 | -0.07% | -3.13% | -1.54% | 2.79% | 6.29% | 7.08% | Worked |
| Apr 24, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 176.59 | -1.65% | 2.47% | 1.36% | 6.46% | 3.70% | 4.76% | Failed |
| Apr 17, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 181.28 | -1.14% | -2.23% | -2.59% | -1.26% | 2.60% | -1.08% | Worked |
| Mar 19, 2024 | ▲ Bullish | 175.90 | 1.28% | 1.69% | 1.36% | 3.70% | 3.06% | 1.76% | Worked |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ▼ Bearish | 154.62 | -0.94% | -0.72% | 0.10% | 4.29% | 11.46% | 12.24% | Failed |
| Dec 14, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 147.42 | 1.73% | 4.32% | 4.35% | 3.07% | 3.89% | 7.86% | Failed |
| Dec 5, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 146.88 | -1.61% | 0.37% | 0.41% | 4.70% | -1.57% | 5.76% | Worked |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 146.32 | -0.16% | -1.01% | -1.23% | 1.72% | 4.83% | 5.67% | Failed |
| Nov 15, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 143.20 | -0.26% | 2.05% | 2.45% | 2.02% | 2.95% | 6.10% | Failed |
| Nov 10, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 143.56 | -0.68% | -0.25% | 1.13% | 2.90% | 1.62% | 6.86% | Worked |
| Oct 13, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 129.79 | 2.13% | -1.28% | -3.56% | -1.58% | 10.61% | 13.82% | Worked |
| Oct 6, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 127.96 | 0.23% | 3.02% | 1.43% | -2.18% | 8.32% | 13.46% | Failed |
| Sep 13, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 144.85 | -0.09% | -3.36% | -6.60% | -13.03% | -8.99% | -16.20% | Failed |
| Sep 7, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 137.85 | 0.28% | 2.45% | 4.98% | -6.18% | -8.63% | -6.86% | Failed |
| Aug 24, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 131.84 | 1.08% | 2.33% | 4.68% | 4.85% | -2.06% | -2.94% | Failed |
| Jun 15, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 127.11 | -1.27% | -1.79% | 1.75% | 2.56% | 5.07% | 5.17% | Worked |
| Jun 7, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 121.23 | 2.49% | 4.40% | 4.28% | 7.36% | 7.05% | 7.23% | Failed |
| Jun 5, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 125.30 | 1.05% | -0.84% | 1.01% | 0.38% | 4.05% | 8.03% | Worked |
| May 19, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 116.25 | -1.07% | 0.43% | 3.32% | 7.78% | 8.20% | 12.15% | Failed |
| Apr 19, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 104.30 | -0.47% | 1.83% | 0.65% | -0.62% | 10.74% | 17.71% | Failed |
| Mar 27, 2023 | ▼ Bearish | 98.04 | -0.82% | 4.04% | 4.46% | 1.92% | 4.62% | 8.75% | Failed |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 97.18 | 2.10% | 3.47% | 8.20% | 2.95% | -1.40% | -5.07% | Worked |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 98.12 | -2.11% | -4.53% | -0.61% | 2.48% | 1.45% | -3.96% | Worked |
| Jan 6, 2023 | ▲ Bullish | 86.08 | 1.49% | 10.47% | 13.99% | 13.29% | 18.70% | 9.87% | Worked |
Showing the 60 most recent of 82 occurrences.
Which Patterns Actually Work on AMZN?
All 24 patterns scored on the Daily timeframe at +10 bars. Ranked by reliability; patterns with fewer than 10 occurrences are listed last as untrustworthy. Click any row to analyse it.
| # | Pattern | Bias | Booki | Samples | Win Rate | Avg | Edge | t-stat | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dark Cloud Cover | Bearish | ★★★ | 16 | 62.5% | 2.66% | +3.24% | 1.63 | 61 Moderate |
| 2 | Harami | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 99 | 54.5% | 0.88% | +0.82% | 1.38 | 57 Weak / No edge |
| 3 | Morning Star | Bullish | ★★★ | 10 | 60.0% | 2.64% | +2.07% | 0.92 | 56 Weak / No edge |
| 4 | Harami Cross | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 27 | 51.9% | 0.82% | +0.80% | 0.94 | 55 Weak / No edge |
| 5 | Inverted Hammer | Bullish | ★★★ | 11 | 54.5% | 3.30% | +2.73% | 1.00 | 55 Weak / No edge |
| 6 | Doji | Non-directional | ★★★ | 146 | 54.8% | 0.67% | +0.09% | 0.16 | 53 Weak / No edge |
| 7 | Spinning Top | Non-directional | ★★★ | 266 | 54.5% | 0.46% | -0.11% | -0.28 | 52 Weak / No edge |
| 8 | Three Inside | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 31 | 48.4% | 0.06% | +0.04% | 0.03 | 50 Weak / No edge |
| 9 | Dragonfly Doji | Bullish | ★★★ | 15 | 60.0% | -0.66% | -1.23% | -0.59 | 50 Weak / No edge |
| 10 | Gravestone Doji | Bearish | ★★★ | 11 | 45.5% | -0.63% | -0.06% | -0.04 | 49 Weak / No edge |
| 11 | Shooting Star | Bearish | ★★★ | 15 | 46.7% | -1.86% | -1.29% | -0.77 | 46 Weak / No edge |
| 12 | Hammer | Bullish | ★★★ | 35 | 48.6% | -0.82% | -1.40% | -1.03 | 45 Weak / No edge |
| 13 | Engulfing | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 82 | 50.0% | -1.14% | -1.01% | -1.46 | 45 Weak / No edge |
| 14 | Marubozu | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 71 | 45.1% | -1.02% | -0.99% | -0.93 | 44 Weak / No edge |
| 15 | Three Outside | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 44 | 45.5% | -1.36% | -1.18% | -1.19 | 43 Weak / No edge |
| 16 | Belt Hold | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 213 | 43.2% | -0.99% | -0.95% | -1.88 | 42 Contrarian |
| 17 | Hanging Man | Bearish | ★★★ | 21 | 28.6% | -1.21% | -0.64% | -0.34 | 42 Contrarian |
| 18 | Evening Star | Bearish | ★★★ | 11 | 36.4% | -3.17% | -2.59% | -1.17 | 42 Contrarian |
| 19 | Piercing Line | Bullish | ★★★ | 4 | 75.0% | 4.09% | +3.52% | 1.34 | 56 Insufficient sample |
| 20 | Three White Soldiers | Bullish | ★★★ | 1 | 100.0% | 1.43% | +0.86% | – | 51 Insufficient sample |
| 21 | Abandoned Baby | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 22 | Three Black Crows | Bearish | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 23 | Rising/Falling Three Methods | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
| 24 | Kicking | Bull / Bear | ★★★ | 0 | – | – | – | – | – No data |
Out-of-Sample Validation
Each pattern is fitted on the first 70% of history (through Mar 13, 2025) and then re-tested on the held-out 30% it never saw. A pattern only earns Holds up OOS if it showed an in-sample edge and stayed profitable with a >50% win rate out-of-sample. In-sample signals are embargoed so their forward window cannot peek across the split.
Why this matters: testing 24 patterns at once means roughly 1.2 would look significant by pure chance. 0 of 24 survived out-of-sample here — that is no better than luck would predict, so treat these as unproven.
| Pattern | Bias | IS n | IS Win | IS Edge | IS Score | OOS n | OOS Win | OOS Edge | OOS t | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harami | Bull / Bear | 70 | 60.0% | +1.13% | 60 | 29 | 41.4% | +0.07% | 0.07 | Partial |
| Doji | Non-dir. | 107 | 51.4% | -0.30% | 49 | 38 | 65.8% | +1.23% | 1.35 | No IS edge |
| Spinning Top | Non-dir. | 181 | 49.7% | -0.62% | 46 | 83 | 65.1% | +0.87% | 1.33 | No IS edge |
| Engulfing | Bull / Bear | 59 | 42.4% | -1.78% | 38 | 21 | 66.7% | +0.75% | 0.60 | No IS edge |
| Three Outside | Bull / Bear | 31 | 32.3% | -2.11% | 36 | 11 | 72.7% | +0.79% | 0.55 | No IS edge |
| Marubozu | Bull / Bear | 52 | 40.4% | -1.10% | 42 | 19 | 57.9% | -0.59% | -0.25 | No IS edge |
| Hammer | Bullish | 25 | 48.0% | -1.85% | 43 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.35% | -0.10 | No IS edge |
| Belt Hold | Bull / Bear | 140 | 43.6% | -0.65% | 44 | 73 | 42.5% | -1.46% | -1.64 | No IS edge |
| Hanging Man | Bearish | 18 | 16.7% | -2.03% | 36 | 3 | 100.0% | +7.37% | 2.61 | Insufficient OOS |
| Dark Cloud Cover | Bearish | 12 | 66.7% | +2.76% | 59 | 4 | 50.0% | +4.68% | 1.00 | Insufficient OOS |
| Three Inside | Bull / Bear | 24 | 54.2% | -0.13% | 51 | 7 | 28.6% | +0.56% | 0.18 | Insufficient OOS |
| Dragonfly Doji | Bullish | 11 | 63.6% | -1.07% | 51 | 4 | 50.0% | -1.73% | -1.59 | Insufficient OOS |
| Harami Cross | Bull / Bear | 21 | 57.1% | +1.46% | 58 | 6 | 33.3% | -1.47% | -1.55 | Insufficient OOS |
| Evening Star | Bearish | 7 | 28.6% | -5.50% | 41 | 4 | 50.0% | +2.65% | 1.93 | Insufficient IS |
| Morning Star | Bullish | 8 | 62.5% | +2.98% | 57 | 2 | 50.0% | -1.46% | -0.41 | Insufficient IS |
| Shooting Star | Bearish | 7 | 42.9% | -1.95% | 46 | 8 | 50.0% | -0.44% | -0.19 | Insufficient IS |
| Inverted Hammer | Bullish | 7 | 71.4% | +3.78% | 58 | 4 | 25.0% | +0.74% | 0.13 | Insufficient IS |
| Gravestone Doji | Bearish | 8 | 50.0% | +0.01% | 50 | 3 | 33.3% | -0.18% | -0.19 | Insufficient IS |
| Three Black Crows | Bearish | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Three White Soldiers | Bullish | 1 | 100.0% | +0.98% | 51 | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Piercing Line | Bullish | 4 | 75.0% | +3.64% | 56 | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Rising/Falling Three Methods | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Abandoned Baby | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
| Kicking | Bull / Bear | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | Insufficient IS |
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