Futures Spread Monitor
29 curated relative-value relationships — refining cracks, the board crush, metal ratios, feed margins and curve proxies — each measured against its own history. The z-score says how unusual today is; the half-life says whether unusual has historically meant anything.
| Spread | Legs | Level | Unit | 1D chg | 1W chg | 1M chg | Z | %ile | 5Y range | Half-life | ADF t | Leg r |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline − Heating oil Seasonal product switch, both in $/bbl | RB / HO | -67.95 | $/bbl | -1.22 | +1.11 | -19.78 | -2.71 | 1 | -83.45 – 13.23 | 52 | -1.71 | 0.55 |
| Cattle / Corn Feed cost pressure on the feedlot | LE / ZC | 0.4093 | ratio | +0.7% | -1.2% | -10.9% | -2.49 | 53 | 0.1626 – 0.6298 | 83 | -1.82 | -0.04 |
| 10Y − 2Y (price) Belly curve proxy in futures price, not yield | ZN / ZT | 4.102 | pts | +0.152 | +0.012 | -1.211 | -2.44 | 0 | 3.883 – 23.531 | 37 | -2.45 | 0.83 |
| Coffee / Sugar Brazilian soft-complex relative value | KC / SB | 15.34 | ratio | -3.3% | -2.5% | -17.9% | -2.06 | 64 | 5.37 – 29.31 | 117 | -1.91 | 0.14 |
| Heating oil crack Distillate refining margin: HO ×42 − WTI | HO / CL | 108.60 | $/bbl | +1.21 | +1.60 | +6.87 | 2.02 | 100 | 18.59 – 117.92 | none | 0.09 | 0.71 |
| Dow / S&P Old economy against the index | YM / ES | 6.748 | ratio | -0.1% | -1.9% | -2.7% | -1.73 | 2 | 6.659 – 8.679 | 66 | -2.26 | 0.90 |
| Feeder − Live cattle The feeding margin, cents per pound | GF / LE | 107.57 | c/lb | -1.16 | -5.26 | +2.74 | -1.46 | 79 | 13.74 – 134.53 | 235 | -1.07 | 0.09 |
| Copper / Gold Growth against fear — the classic macro barometer | HG / GC | 0.00153 | ratio | +1.2% | +4.0% | +8.7% | 1.36 | 29 | 0.00111 – 0.00268 | 86 | -1.95 | 0.40 |
| Cocoa / Coffee The two supply-shock softs against each other | CC / KC | 18.99 | ratio | -9.0% | -9.0% | +3.3% | 1.34 | 54 | 9.63 – 52.76 | 77 | -1.82 | 0.12 |
| Copper / Aluminum Relative industrial-metal demand | HG / ALI | 0.00195 | ratio | +1.1% | +3.9% | +0.7% | 1.26 | 94 | 0.00127 – 0.00226 | 16 | -4.02 | 0.45 |
| Wheat − Corn Feed-substitution spread, cents per bushel | KE / ZC | 265.3 | c/bu | +9.0 | +6.0 | -5.0 | 1.23 | 84 | 54.0 – 567.0 | 75 | -1.64 | 0.45 |
| 3-2-1 crack Blended refinery margin: (2×RBOB + 1×HO) ×42 ÷ 3 − WTI | RB / HO / CL | 63.29 | $/bbl | +0.40 | +2.34 | -6.31 | 1.17 | 97 | 13.30 – 72.22 | 177 | -0.88 | — |
| Brent − WTI Atlantic vs inland US crude — the location/quality spread | BZ / CL | 7.70 | $/bbl | -0.09 | +3.41 | +0.37 | 1.14 | 97 | -3.68 – 13.87 | 7 | -6.24 | 0.95 |
| 30Y − 10Y (price) Long-end curve proxy in futures price, not yield | ZB / ZN | 1.469 | pts | +0.266 | +0.609 | +0.859 | -1.13 | 4 | -0.141 – 33.000 | 65 | -2.18 | 0.90 |
| Live cattle / Lean hogs Protein substitution ratio | LE / HE | 2.765 | ratio | +1.2% | +2.6% | +3.7% | 1.04 | 97 | 1.131 – 3.021 | 35 | -2.61 | 0.02 |
| Soybeans / Corn The acreage-switch ratio watched every spring | ZS / ZC | 2.459 | ratio | -0.5% | +0.5% | -0.6% | -1.02 | 53 | 1.896 – 2.995 | 38 | -2.69 | 0.52 |
| S&P / Gold Equities priced in gold | ES / GC | 1.760 | ratio | +1.0% | +0.4% | +7.1% | 1.02 | 21 | 1.274 – 2.664 | 150 | -1.49 | 0.10 |
| Russell / S&P Small caps against large — the breadth trade | RTY / ES | 0.3733 | ratio | -0.1% | -1.6% | -5.0% | -1.02 | 20 | 0.3467 – 0.5202 | 36 | -3.08 | 0.84 |
| Gold / Crude How many barrels an ounce buys | GC / CL | 46.90 | ratio | +1.8% | +9.3% | -12.8% | -0.97 | 72 | 15.15 – 83.90 | 105 | -1.71 | 0.03 |
| Platinum / Palladium Substitution pair in autocatalysts | PL / PA | 1.366 | ratio | -0.2% | +0.4% | -2.7% | 0.91 | 97 | 0.375 – 1.443 | 63 | -2.21 | 0.69 |
| Crude / Natural gas Energy-equivalent ratio between the two benchmarks | CL / NG | 32.61 | ratio | -1.2% | -6.9% | +3.9% | 0.85 | 83 | 8.92 – 51.95 | 63 | -2.01 | 0.11 |
| Nasdaq / S&P Growth against the broad market | NQ / ES | 3.886 | ratio | +0.2% | +1.6% | +1.7% | 0.80 | 95 | 2.826 – 4.065 | 93 | -1.52 | 0.94 |
| Soybean oil / meal Which half of the bean is carrying the crush | ZL / ZM | 0.1886 | ratio | -0.8% | -3.1% | -4.8% | -0.56 | 82 | 0.1091 – 0.2495 | 105 | -1.69 | 0.04 |
| Gold / Dollar index Metal against the currency it is quoted in | GC / DX | 44.00 | ratio | -0.6% | +0.2% | -7.2% | -0.52 | 86 | 14.32 – 55.70 | 289 | -1.09 | -0.26 |
| Gold / Platinum Store-of-value against the industrial precious metal | GC / PL | 2.440 | ratio | -0.4% | -0.2% | -1.2% | 0.47 | 67 | 1.662 – 3.554 | 52 | -2.34 | 0.59 |
| Corn / Oats Feed-grain relative value | ZC / ZO | 1.338 | ratio | +3.1% | -1.4% | -8.2% | -0.44 | 61 | 0.738 – 2.047 | 24 | -3.30 | 0.20 |
| RBOB crack Gasoline refining margin: RBOB ×42 − WTI | RB / CL | 40.64 | $/bbl | -0.01 | +2.72 | -12.91 | 0.40 | 88 | 7.45 – 60.79 | 46 | -2.32 | 0.72 |
| Gold / Silver The classic precious-metals ratio | GC / SI | 65.86 | ratio | -0.0% | -2.9% | -2.2% | 0.37 | 12 | 44.00 – 105.33 | 123 | -1.37 | 0.77 |
| Board crush Processor margin: meal ×0.022 + oil ×0.11 − beans, $/bu | ZM / ZL / ZS | 2.353 | $/bu | -0.005 | -0.070 | +0.061 | -0.11 | 72 | 0.574 – 4.876 | 71 | -1.88 | — |
Change columns are in the spread’s own units for differences and cracks, and in percent for ratios — a difference spread can cross zero, where a percentage change stops meaning anything. Z is the current level against the mean and standard deviation of the last 250 sessions of the spread itself. %ile is its rank within the full five-year history (sequential ramp — magnitude, not direction). Half-life is the mean-reversion half-life in sessions from an OLS fit of ΔS on lagged S; “none” means the fit found no reversion at all, which is the honest answer for a trending ratio. ADF t is a single-lag Augmented Dickey-Fuller t-statistic on the spread: roughly −2.9 or lower is 5% evidence against a random walk. A spread with a high |z| but no reversion evidence is a trend, not a snap-back. Leg r is the daily-return correlation of the two legs, shown only for two-legged spreads. Cracks convert $/gal to $/bbl at 42 gallons; the board crush uses the standard 44 lb meal / 11 lb oil per bushel yields. Levels come from continuous front-month series, so each leg carries its own roll gaps — the spreads are a monitor, not a settlement price.
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You ask
“How does NVDA usually trade through earnings?”
It calls
→ ka.options_expected_move(NVDA)
It answers
NVDA has averaged a 9.2% absolute move on the day after earnings and closed higher 67% of the time. Two in three reactions land between −4.2% and +16.3% — the distribution is skewed right, not symmetric.
Every figure computed live from our own history — not scraped, not summarised.
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