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COMMANDS Global: GP Symbol: IBM FA
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Futures Spread Monitor

29 curated relative-value relationships — refining cracks, the board crush, metal ratios, feed margins and curve proxies — each measured against its own history. The z-score says how unusual today is; the half-life says whether unusual has historically meant anything.

Analytics as of 2026-09-20·40 continuous front-month contracts·LIVE today’s bar is still forming and is excluded from all statistics·inter-market spreads only — calendar spreads need individual contract months, which the feed does not carry·computed 8s ago
Stretched spreads
5 / 29
|z| at or beyond 2.0
Most extended
+2.0σ
Heating oil crack
Most compressed
-2.7σ
Gasoline − Heating oil
SpreadLegsLevelUnit1D chg1W chg1M chgZ%ile5Y rangeHalf-lifeADF tLeg r
Gasoline − Heating oil
Seasonal product switch, both in $/bbl
RB / HO-67.95$/bbl-1.22+1.11-19.78-2.711-83.45 – 13.2352-1.710.55
Cattle / Corn
Feed cost pressure on the feedlot
LE / ZC0.4093ratio+0.7%-1.2%-10.9%-2.49530.1626 – 0.629883-1.82-0.04
10Y − 2Y (price)
Belly curve proxy in futures price, not yield
ZN / ZT4.102pts+0.152+0.012-1.211-2.4403.883 – 23.53137-2.450.83
Coffee / Sugar
Brazilian soft-complex relative value
KC / SB15.34ratio-3.3%-2.5%-17.9%-2.06645.37 – 29.31117-1.910.14
Heating oil crack
Distillate refining margin: HO ×42 − WTI
HO / CL108.60$/bbl+1.21+1.60+6.872.0210018.59 – 117.92none0.090.71
Dow / S&P
Old economy against the index
YM / ES6.748ratio-0.1%-1.9%-2.7%-1.7326.659 – 8.67966-2.260.90
Feeder − Live cattle
The feeding margin, cents per pound
GF / LE107.57c/lb-1.16-5.26+2.74-1.467913.74 – 134.53235-1.070.09
Copper / Gold
Growth against fear — the classic macro barometer
HG / GC0.00153ratio+1.2%+4.0%+8.7%1.36290.00111 – 0.0026886-1.950.40
Cocoa / Coffee
The two supply-shock softs against each other
CC / KC18.99ratio-9.0%-9.0%+3.3%1.34549.63 – 52.7677-1.820.12
Copper / Aluminum
Relative industrial-metal demand
HG / ALI0.00195ratio+1.1%+3.9%+0.7%1.26940.00127 – 0.0022616-4.020.45
Wheat − Corn
Feed-substitution spread, cents per bushel
KE / ZC265.3c/bu+9.0+6.0-5.01.238454.0 – 567.075-1.640.45
3-2-1 crack
Blended refinery margin: (2×RBOB + 1×HO) ×42 ÷ 3 − WTI
RB / HO / CL63.29$/bbl+0.40+2.34-6.311.179713.30 – 72.22177-0.88
Brent − WTI
Atlantic vs inland US crude — the location/quality spread
BZ / CL7.70$/bbl-0.09+3.41+0.371.1497-3.68 – 13.877-6.240.95
30Y − 10Y (price)
Long-end curve proxy in futures price, not yield
ZB / ZN1.469pts+0.266+0.609+0.859-1.134-0.141 – 33.00065-2.180.90
Live cattle / Lean hogs
Protein substitution ratio
LE / HE2.765ratio+1.2%+2.6%+3.7%1.04971.131 – 3.02135-2.610.02
Soybeans / Corn
The acreage-switch ratio watched every spring
ZS / ZC2.459ratio-0.5%+0.5%-0.6%-1.02531.896 – 2.99538-2.690.52
S&P / Gold
Equities priced in gold
ES / GC1.760ratio+1.0%+0.4%+7.1%1.02211.274 – 2.664150-1.490.10
Russell / S&P
Small caps against large — the breadth trade
RTY / ES0.3733ratio-0.1%-1.6%-5.0%-1.02200.3467 – 0.520236-3.080.84
Gold / Crude
How many barrels an ounce buys
GC / CL46.90ratio+1.8%+9.3%-12.8%-0.977215.15 – 83.90105-1.710.03
Platinum / Palladium
Substitution pair in autocatalysts
PL / PA1.366ratio-0.2%+0.4%-2.7%0.91970.375 – 1.44363-2.210.69
Crude / Natural gas
Energy-equivalent ratio between the two benchmarks
CL / NG32.61ratio-1.2%-6.9%+3.9%0.85838.92 – 51.9563-2.010.11
Nasdaq / S&P
Growth against the broad market
NQ / ES3.886ratio+0.2%+1.6%+1.7%0.80952.826 – 4.06593-1.520.94
Soybean oil / meal
Which half of the bean is carrying the crush
ZL / ZM0.1886ratio-0.8%-3.1%-4.8%-0.56820.1091 – 0.2495105-1.690.04
Gold / Dollar index
Metal against the currency it is quoted in
GC / DX44.00ratio-0.6%+0.2%-7.2%-0.528614.32 – 55.70289-1.09-0.26
Gold / Platinum
Store-of-value against the industrial precious metal
GC / PL2.440ratio-0.4%-0.2%-1.2%0.47671.662 – 3.55452-2.340.59
Corn / Oats
Feed-grain relative value
ZC / ZO1.338ratio+3.1%-1.4%-8.2%-0.44610.738 – 2.04724-3.300.20
RBOB crack
Gasoline refining margin: RBOB ×42 − WTI
RB / CL40.64$/bbl-0.01+2.72-12.910.40887.45 – 60.7946-2.320.72
Gold / Silver
The classic precious-metals ratio
GC / SI65.86ratio-0.0%-2.9%-2.2%0.371244.00 – 105.33123-1.370.77
Board crush
Processor margin: meal ×0.022 + oil ×0.11 − beans, $/bu
ZM / ZL / ZS2.353$/bu-0.005-0.070+0.061-0.11720.574 – 4.87671-1.88
−3σ+3σ

Change columns are in the spread’s own units for differences and cracks, and in percent for ratios — a difference spread can cross zero, where a percentage change stops meaning anything. Z is the current level against the mean and standard deviation of the last 250 sessions of the spread itself. %ile is its rank within the full five-year history (sequential ramp — magnitude, not direction). Half-life is the mean-reversion half-life in sessions from an OLS fit of ΔS on lagged S; “none” means the fit found no reversion at all, which is the honest answer for a trending ratio. ADF t is a single-lag Augmented Dickey-Fuller t-statistic on the spread: roughly −2.9 or lower is 5% evidence against a random walk. A spread with a high |z| but no reversion evidence is a trend, not a snap-back. Leg r is the daily-return correlation of the two legs, shown only for two-legged spreads. Cracks convert $/gal to $/bbl at 42 gallons; the board crush uses the standard 44 lb meal / 11 lb oil per bushel yields. Levels come from continuous front-month series, so each leg carries its own roll gaps — the spreads are a monitor, not a settlement price.

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