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COMMANDS Global: GP Symbol: IBM FA
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Futures Spread Monitor

29 curated relative-value relationships — refining cracks, the board crush, metal ratios, feed margins and curve proxies — each measured against its own history. The z-score says how unusual today is; the half-life says whether unusual has historically meant anything.

Analytics as of 2026-09-13·40 continuous front-month contracts·LIVE today’s bar is still forming and is excluded from all statistics·inter-market spreads only — calendar spreads need individual contract months, which the feed does not carry
Stretched spreads
6 / 29
|z| at or beyond 2.0
Most extended
+2.0σ
Cocoa / Coffee
Most compressed
-3.3σ
Gasoline − Heating oil
SpreadLegsLevelUnit1D chg1W chg1M chgZ%ile5Y rangeHalf-lifeADF tLeg r
Gasoline − Heating oil
Seasonal product switch, both in $/bbl
RB / HO-71.04$/bbl-1.80-9.89-24.89-3.260-83.45 – 13.2352-1.610.55
10Y − 2Y (price)
Belly curve proxy in futures price, not yield
ZN / ZT4.043pts-0.063-0.742-1.480-2.7004.043 – 23.86737-2.390.83
Cattle / Corn
Feed cost pressure on the feedlot
LE / ZC0.4143ratio+1.5%+4.5%-15.4%-2.59550.1626 – 0.629884-1.80-0.04
30Y − 10Y (price)
Long-end curve proxy in futures price, not yield
ZB / ZN0.422pts-0.156-0.641+0.156-2.170-0.141 – 33.00073-1.980.90
Coffee / Sugar
Brazilian soft-complex relative value
KC / SB15.74ratio+2.3%-3.7%-19.2%-2.05655.37 – 29.31120-1.870.14
Cocoa / Coffee
The two supply-shock softs against each other
CC / KC20.86ratio+0.8%-0.2%+16.6%2.05589.63 – 52.7676-1.840.12
Heating oil crack
Distillate refining margin: HO ×42 − WTI
HO / CL101.42$/bbl+1.20-2.57+3.941.869918.59 – 110.33752-0.210.71
Feeder − Live cattle
The feeding margin, cents per pound
GF / LE108.50c/lb-1.23+1.69-7.06-1.398013.74 – 134.53242-1.050.09
Gold / Crude
How many barrels an ounce buys
GC / CL42.28ratio-4.0%-11.7%-21.5%-1.366715.15 – 83.90109-1.650.03
Wheat − Corn
Feed-substitution spread, cents per bushel
KE / ZC266.8c/bu-1.5-17.0-28.51.318454.0 – 567.072-1.670.45
Crude / Natural gas
Energy-equivalent ratio between the two benchmarks
CL / NG35.79ratio+0.9%+12.6%+18.7%1.28918.92 – 51.9566-1.920.11
Soybeans / Corn
The acreage-switch ratio watched every spring
ZS / ZC2.452ratio+0.3%+0.9%-6.6%-1.14531.896 – 2.99539-2.640.52
Copper / Gold
Growth against fear — the classic macro barometer
HG / GC0.00148ratio-0.4%-3.8%-0.7%1.05240.00111 – 0.0026889-1.900.40
Platinum / Palladium
Substitution pair in autocatalysts
PL / PA1.375ratio+1.3%+1.6%+3.8%1.04970.375 – 1.44379-1.700.69
S&P / Gold
Equities priced in gold
ES / GC1.743ratio+0.3%+0.7%-0.9%0.94191.274 – 2.664158-1.420.10
Live cattle / Lean hogs
Protein substitution ratio
LE / HE2.694ratio+2.9%+4.9%+0.6%0.67931.131 – 3.02134-2.710.01
3-2-1 crack
Blended refinery margin: (2×RBOB + 1×HO) ×42 ÷ 3 − WTI
RB / HO / CL54.06$/bbl-0.00-9.17-12.660.679213.30 – 72.22114-1.32
Dow / S&P
Old economy against the index
YM / ES6.893ratio+0.4%+0.2%-0.0%-0.6646.659 – 8.67967-2.240.90
Gold / Silver
The classic precious-metals ratio
GC / SI67.82ratio+0.3%+2.4%-0.5%0.611444.00 – 105.33114-1.470.77
Gold / Dollar index
Metal against the currency it is quoted in
GC / DX44.15ratio-1.0%-1.4%-0.9%-0.458614.32 – 55.70285-1.11-0.27
Copper / Aluminum
Relative industrial-metal demand
HG / ALI0.00188ratio-2.4%-3.1%-3.6%0.45830.00127 – 0.0022616-4.110.45
Gold / Platinum
Store-of-value against the industrial precious metal
GC / PL2.428ratio-1.0%+1.4%-3.9%0.38661.662 – 3.55453-2.300.59
Russell / S&P
Small caps against large — the breadth trade
RTY / ES0.3803ratio+0.3%-1.4%-3.5%-0.27250.3467 – 0.520243-2.550.84
RBOB crack
Gasoline refining margin: RBOB ×42 − WTI
RB / CL30.38$/bbl-0.60-12.46-20.95-0.26717.45 – 60.7942-2.540.72
Nasdaq / S&P
Growth against the broad market
NQ / ES3.806ratio-0.8%-1.0%-1.4%0.19922.826 – 4.06576-1.830.93
Corn / Oats
Feed-grain relative value
ZC / ZO1.385ratio-0.6%-4.7%+4.5%0.17680.738 – 2.04725-3.260.21
Soybean oil / meal
Which half of the bean is carrying the crush
ZL / ZM0.1980ratio+0.4%+0.7%-7.7%-0.16870.1091 – 0.2495109-1.620.03
Board crush
Processor margin: meal ×0.022 + oil ×0.11 − beans, $/bu
ZM / ZL / ZS2.494$/bu+0.040+0.152-0.0180.11760.574 – 4.87667-1.96
Brent − WTI
Atlantic vs inland US crude — the location/quality spread
BZ / CL4.61$/bbl+0.05-0.61-1.51-0.0569-3.68 – 13.877-6.250.95
−3σ+3σ

Change columns are in the spread’s own units for differences and cracks, and in percent for ratios — a difference spread can cross zero, where a percentage change stops meaning anything. Z is the current level against the mean and standard deviation of the last 250 sessions of the spread itself. %ile is its rank within the full five-year history (sequential ramp — magnitude, not direction). Half-life is the mean-reversion half-life in sessions from an OLS fit of ΔS on lagged S; “none” means the fit found no reversion at all, which is the honest answer for a trending ratio. ADF t is a single-lag Augmented Dickey-Fuller t-statistic on the spread: roughly −2.9 or lower is 5% evidence against a random walk. A spread with a high |z| but no reversion evidence is a trend, not a snap-back. Leg r is the daily-return correlation of the two legs, shown only for two-legged spreads. Cracks convert $/gal to $/bbl at 42 gallons; the board crush uses the standard 44 lb meal / 11 lb oil per bushel yields. Levels come from continuous front-month series, so each leg carries its own roll gaps — the spreads are a monitor, not a settlement price.

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