Futures Spread Monitor
29 curated relative-value relationships — refining cracks, the board crush, metal ratios, feed margins and curve proxies — each measured against its own history. The z-score says how unusual today is; the half-life says whether unusual has historically meant anything.
| Spread | Legs | Level | Unit | 1D chg | 1W chg | 1M chg | Z | %ile | 5Y range | Half-life | ADF t | Leg r |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline − Heating oil Seasonal product switch, both in $/bbl | RB / HO | -71.04 | $/bbl | -1.80 | -9.89 | -24.89 | -3.26 | 0 | -83.45 – 13.23 | 52 | -1.61 | 0.55 |
| 10Y − 2Y (price) Belly curve proxy in futures price, not yield | ZN / ZT | 4.043 | pts | -0.063 | -0.742 | -1.480 | -2.70 | 0 | 4.043 – 23.867 | 37 | -2.39 | 0.83 |
| Cattle / Corn Feed cost pressure on the feedlot | LE / ZC | 0.4143 | ratio | +1.5% | +4.5% | -15.4% | -2.59 | 55 | 0.1626 – 0.6298 | 84 | -1.80 | -0.04 |
| 30Y − 10Y (price) Long-end curve proxy in futures price, not yield | ZB / ZN | 0.422 | pts | -0.156 | -0.641 | +0.156 | -2.17 | 0 | -0.141 – 33.000 | 73 | -1.98 | 0.90 |
| Coffee / Sugar Brazilian soft-complex relative value | KC / SB | 15.74 | ratio | +2.3% | -3.7% | -19.2% | -2.05 | 65 | 5.37 – 29.31 | 120 | -1.87 | 0.14 |
| Cocoa / Coffee The two supply-shock softs against each other | CC / KC | 20.86 | ratio | +0.8% | -0.2% | +16.6% | 2.05 | 58 | 9.63 – 52.76 | 76 | -1.84 | 0.12 |
| Heating oil crack Distillate refining margin: HO ×42 − WTI | HO / CL | 101.42 | $/bbl | +1.20 | -2.57 | +3.94 | 1.86 | 99 | 18.59 – 110.33 | 752 | -0.21 | 0.71 |
| Feeder − Live cattle The feeding margin, cents per pound | GF / LE | 108.50 | c/lb | -1.23 | +1.69 | -7.06 | -1.39 | 80 | 13.74 – 134.53 | 242 | -1.05 | 0.09 |
| Gold / Crude How many barrels an ounce buys | GC / CL | 42.28 | ratio | -4.0% | -11.7% | -21.5% | -1.36 | 67 | 15.15 – 83.90 | 109 | -1.65 | 0.03 |
| Wheat − Corn Feed-substitution spread, cents per bushel | KE / ZC | 266.8 | c/bu | -1.5 | -17.0 | -28.5 | 1.31 | 84 | 54.0 – 567.0 | 72 | -1.67 | 0.45 |
| Crude / Natural gas Energy-equivalent ratio between the two benchmarks | CL / NG | 35.79 | ratio | +0.9% | +12.6% | +18.7% | 1.28 | 91 | 8.92 – 51.95 | 66 | -1.92 | 0.11 |
| Soybeans / Corn The acreage-switch ratio watched every spring | ZS / ZC | 2.452 | ratio | +0.3% | +0.9% | -6.6% | -1.14 | 53 | 1.896 – 2.995 | 39 | -2.64 | 0.52 |
| Copper / Gold Growth against fear — the classic macro barometer | HG / GC | 0.00148 | ratio | -0.4% | -3.8% | -0.7% | 1.05 | 24 | 0.00111 – 0.00268 | 89 | -1.90 | 0.40 |
| Platinum / Palladium Substitution pair in autocatalysts | PL / PA | 1.375 | ratio | +1.3% | +1.6% | +3.8% | 1.04 | 97 | 0.375 – 1.443 | 79 | -1.70 | 0.69 |
| S&P / Gold Equities priced in gold | ES / GC | 1.743 | ratio | +0.3% | +0.7% | -0.9% | 0.94 | 19 | 1.274 – 2.664 | 158 | -1.42 | 0.10 |
| Live cattle / Lean hogs Protein substitution ratio | LE / HE | 2.694 | ratio | +2.9% | +4.9% | +0.6% | 0.67 | 93 | 1.131 – 3.021 | 34 | -2.71 | 0.01 |
| 3-2-1 crack Blended refinery margin: (2×RBOB + 1×HO) ×42 ÷ 3 − WTI | RB / HO / CL | 54.06 | $/bbl | -0.00 | -9.17 | -12.66 | 0.67 | 92 | 13.30 – 72.22 | 114 | -1.32 | — |
| Dow / S&P Old economy against the index | YM / ES | 6.893 | ratio | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.0% | -0.66 | 4 | 6.659 – 8.679 | 67 | -2.24 | 0.90 |
| Gold / Silver The classic precious-metals ratio | GC / SI | 67.82 | ratio | +0.3% | +2.4% | -0.5% | 0.61 | 14 | 44.00 – 105.33 | 114 | -1.47 | 0.77 |
| Gold / Dollar index Metal against the currency it is quoted in | GC / DX | 44.15 | ratio | -1.0% | -1.4% | -0.9% | -0.45 | 86 | 14.32 – 55.70 | 285 | -1.11 | -0.27 |
| Copper / Aluminum Relative industrial-metal demand | HG / ALI | 0.00188 | ratio | -2.4% | -3.1% | -3.6% | 0.45 | 83 | 0.00127 – 0.00226 | 16 | -4.11 | 0.45 |
| Gold / Platinum Store-of-value against the industrial precious metal | GC / PL | 2.428 | ratio | -1.0% | +1.4% | -3.9% | 0.38 | 66 | 1.662 – 3.554 | 53 | -2.30 | 0.59 |
| Russell / S&P Small caps against large — the breadth trade | RTY / ES | 0.3803 | ratio | +0.3% | -1.4% | -3.5% | -0.27 | 25 | 0.3467 – 0.5202 | 43 | -2.55 | 0.84 |
| RBOB crack Gasoline refining margin: RBOB ×42 − WTI | RB / CL | 30.38 | $/bbl | -0.60 | -12.46 | -20.95 | -0.26 | 71 | 7.45 – 60.79 | 42 | -2.54 | 0.72 |
| Nasdaq / S&P Growth against the broad market | NQ / ES | 3.806 | ratio | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.19 | 92 | 2.826 – 4.065 | 76 | -1.83 | 0.93 |
| Corn / Oats Feed-grain relative value | ZC / ZO | 1.385 | ratio | -0.6% | -4.7% | +4.5% | 0.17 | 68 | 0.738 – 2.047 | 25 | -3.26 | 0.21 |
| Soybean oil / meal Which half of the bean is carrying the crush | ZL / ZM | 0.1980 | ratio | +0.4% | +0.7% | -7.7% | -0.16 | 87 | 0.1091 – 0.2495 | 109 | -1.62 | 0.03 |
| Board crush Processor margin: meal ×0.022 + oil ×0.11 − beans, $/bu | ZM / ZL / ZS | 2.494 | $/bu | +0.040 | +0.152 | -0.018 | 0.11 | 76 | 0.574 – 4.876 | 67 | -1.96 | — |
| Brent − WTI Atlantic vs inland US crude — the location/quality spread | BZ / CL | 4.61 | $/bbl | +0.05 | -0.61 | -1.51 | -0.05 | 69 | -3.68 – 13.87 | 7 | -6.25 | 0.95 |
Change columns are in the spread’s own units for differences and cracks, and in percent for ratios — a difference spread can cross zero, where a percentage change stops meaning anything. Z is the current level against the mean and standard deviation of the last 250 sessions of the spread itself. %ile is its rank within the full five-year history (sequential ramp — magnitude, not direction). Half-life is the mean-reversion half-life in sessions from an OLS fit of ΔS on lagged S; “none” means the fit found no reversion at all, which is the honest answer for a trending ratio. ADF t is a single-lag Augmented Dickey-Fuller t-statistic on the spread: roughly −2.9 or lower is 5% evidence against a random walk. A spread with a high |z| but no reversion evidence is a trend, not a snap-back. Leg r is the daily-return correlation of the two legs, shown only for two-legged spreads. Cracks convert $/gal to $/bbl at 42 gallons; the board crush uses the standard 44 lb meal / 11 lb oil per bushel yields. Levels come from continuous front-month series, so each leg carries its own roll gaps — the spreads are a monitor, not a settlement price.
Ask the market a question. Get a calculated answer.
The AI is not a chatbot bolted onto a document store. It calls the same analytics engine that powers every screen on this platform — so what comes back is a number it computed from raw history, with the command that produced it.
86,000+ instruments
Global equities, ETFs, funds, options, FX, commodities, crypto, economics, filings, transcripts and news — one normalised symbol universe with adjusted history.
A real analytics engine
Screening, backtesting, technicals, options analytics, correlations, seasonality and factor models — computed on demand from raw prices, never a stale cache.
It shows its working
Answers arrive with the charts, tables and tool calls behind them, so you can check the number instead of trusting a paraphrase.
Your own documents
Upload filings, decks and research. Ask across them and the answer cites the page it came from.
Agents and workflows
Multi-step research that runs the platform's tools for you — screen, pull the history, compute, compare, then write it up.
MCP, CLI and API
The same command catalogue from Claude, your own agent, a shell or your pipeline. The answer on screen is the answer your job gets at 4am.
You ask
“How does NVDA usually trade through earnings?”
It calls
→ ka.options_expected_move(NVDA)
It answers
NVDA has averaged a 9.2% absolute move on the day after earnings and closed higher 67% of the time. Two in three reactions land between −4.2% and +16.3% — the distribution is skewed right, not symmetric.
Every figure computed live from our own history — not scraped, not summarised.
Or start with